Казахстанский эксперт: «ИГИЛ готовится к наступлению на Центральную Азию»

В 2018 году террористы продолжат активную деятельность серией терактов в Европе и в Российской Федерации

Таким мнением поделился с Yenicag.Ru казахстанский политолог Султанбек Султангалиев, комментируя ситуацию в Афганистане и Центральной Азии.

«Военный разгром ИГИЛ как террористического государства не решает проблемы распространения идей радикального псевдоислама на планете. Боевики ИГИЛ направляются не только в Афганистан, хотя слабость государственной власти и делает эту страну привлекательной для дислокации сил террористов. Так же группы боевиков просачиваются и на территорию Ливии, в которой нестабильность политической ситуации сулит возможность возрождения ИГИЛ как военно-политической силы, контролирующей часть территории и самое главное, районы нефтедобычи», — отметил политолог.

По его словам, определенная, хоть и незначительная часть террористов обязательно попытается вернуться любыми путями и средствами на свою историческую родину и именно поэтому спецслужбам всех стран, в том числе и расположенных на постсоветском пространстве, следует быть особенно готовыми оказать должное «гостеприимство» «ветеранам» ИГИЛ.

«Полагаю, что в 2018 году террористы продолжат активную деятельность серией терактов в Европе и в Российской Федерации. В Афганистане перед бандформированиями ИГИЛ в качестве первостепенной задачи стоит проблема урегулирования отношений с движением «Талибан». Полагаю, что обе стороны могут прийти к временному компромиссу, который будет заключаться в разделе сфер влияния. После чего ИГИЛ перейдет к попытке широкомасштабного проникновения в Таджикистан, Кыргызстан, Узбекистан и Туркменистан. И если в отношении Туркменистана, в силу закрытости существующего политического режима, достоверной информации нет, то в других странах уже давно ведут свою деятельность экстремистские ячейки, находящиеся пока в спящем режиме. Затем настанет очередь и Казахстана, в котором так же зреют гнойники религиозного экстремизма. По информации Комитета национальной безопасности республики только в 2017 году в стране были предотвращены 11 попыток терактов», — добавил Султанкалиев.

Эксперт также сказал, что главной сложностью заключается в том, что когда говорится о том, что «среднеазиатские политические режимы укрепляют власть в своих странах», то данный вывод не должен вводить в заблуждение.

«Этот тезис верен только в отношении баланса сил, который возник между властью и политической оппозицией, которая действует в правовом поле и на данный момент является загнанной в угол. Большие сомнения вызывает способность правящих режимов подавить собственными силами организованное вооруженное массовое выступление религиозных экстремистов», — сказал он.

По словам эксперта, именно поэтому актуальным вопросом задачи укрепления стабильности в регионе является усиление межгосударственного сотрудничества в рамках противодействия международному терроризму.

«И Ашхабаду и Ташкенту неизбежно придется пересмотреть свой формат взаимоотношений с Организацией Договора о коллективной безопасности, вплоть до вступления в ряды ОДКБ, председателем которой, кстати говоря, будет Казахстан в 2018 году. Такой шаг способствовал бы в первую очередь интересам национальной безопасности этих государств и гарантировал бы большую степень успешности борьбы с международными террористами в ожидаемом случае обострения ситуации», — отметил эксперт.

Султанкалиев также добавил, что процессу успешного развития, так называемого среднеазиатского региона в который традиционно входят четыре постсоветские республики и Казахстан угрожает не только международный терроризм, но и ряд других масштабных проблем, требующих комплексного решения-перенаселенность отдельных районов, этнические конфликты, проблема использования водных ресурсов, массовая безработица, расслоение общества, потягушки самолюбия национальных элит и внутриклановые конфликты и т.д.

«Именно существующие проблемы социально-экономического характера являются благодатной почвой для распространения идей религиозного экстремизма. Мы можем сказать, что Центральная Азия неизбежно войдет в зону экстремисткой турбулентности», — резюмировал он.

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Комментарии

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