Жанар ТУЛИНДИНОВА. БОЛЬШАЯ ЕВРАЗИЯ: фантом или реальный проект будущего?

Есть ли будущее к европейской и евразийской интеграции? Способны ли проекты ЕС и ЕАЭС к тесному партнерству? Насколько реалистичен проект общего геоэкономического пространства от Лиссабона до Владивостока и Шанхая? Наконец, на каких общих интересах, ценностях и объединяющих проектах может быть построена Большая Евразия? Прошедший с 4 по 9 декабря 2017 г. в Вене и Лаксенбурге Международный молодежный форум «Будущее европейской и евразийской интеграции: форсайт-2040» поставил эти вопросы перед 40 участниками из 19 стран Евросоюза, СНГ и Юго-Восточной Азии.

Конечно, сегодня, в 2017 году, когда в международной политике по-прежнему преобладает парадигма цивилизационного противостояния, политического и экономического соперничества сложно поверить в то, что проект Большой Евразии может стать нашей общей реальностью.

В международной политике доминирует риторика противостояния: седьмой год продолжается война в Сирии, превратившая эту некогда процветавшую страну в руины. В стадию обострения перешел конфликт США и КНДР. Под угрозой срыва находятся договоренности по ядерной программе Ирана. Продолжается российско-украинский кризис. Запад инициировал новый пакет санкций в отношении России. В разных уголках мира происходят террористические акты, вселяя страх в сердца людей.

Непростые времена переживает Европейский и Евразийский союзы. Великобритания готовится к запуску Brexit. Каталония заявила на референдуме о своих правах на суверенитет. Растет напряженность между Казахстаном и Кыргызстаном, двумя братскими народами и партнерами по ЕАЭС.

Вместе с тем мир, как никогда, осознает необходимость интенсификации торгово-экономического сотрудничества в глобальном масштабе. Интеграция и «интеграция интеграций» стали мейнстримом последнего десятилетия: создан Евразийский союз, продвигается китайская инициатива «Один пояс – один путь», проекты Трансатлантического и Транстихоокеанского партнерства, расширяется Шанхайская организация сотрудничества.

Эта противоречивая геополитическая и геоэкономическая повестка и оказалась в центре обсуждения на форуме в Вене. Отмечу, что проведение мероприятия стало возможным благодаря колабборации трех аналитических и общественных структур: инициатива исходила от Института экономических стратегий РАН (ИНЭС; Москва, Россия), финансово его поддержал Фонд им. А.М. Горчакова, а с австрийской стороны соорганизатором выступил Международный институт прикладного системного анализа (IIASA; Лаксенбург, Австрия).

Организаторам удалось обеспечить высочайший уровень проведения мероприятия. В первую очередь с точки зрения уникальных компетенций и медийности (ну как в информационную эпоху без этого) спикеров и VIP-экспертов. Вот только некоторые из них: генеральный директор IIASA, доктор Павел Кабат, первый президент Кыргызской Республики Аскар Акаев, ведущий специалист Австрийского национального банка Андреа Хофер, вице-президент ООО «Сименс» в России, заместитель министра иностранных дел РФ в 1993–1996 гг. Сергей Крылов, руководитель агентства «Арминфо» и информационно-аналитического центра «Восток — Запад» Эммануил Мкртчан, исполнительный директор Сети ООН по поиску решений в целях устойчивого развития Гвидо Шмидт-Трауб.

Более того, итоги Форума и результаты совместной работы были представлены на высоком уровне в рамках 24-го заседания Совета министров ОБСЕ «Связь, торговля и экономическое сотрудничество в рамках расширенного европейского и евразийского пространства». В великолепном Хофбурге, бывшей резиденции императорской династии Габсбургов, где сегодня располагается штаб-квартира ОБСЕ и резиденция федерального президента Австрии, участники находились одновременно с министром иностранных дел России Сергеем Лавровым, Государственного секретарем США Рексом Тиллерсоном и другими главами внешнеполитических ведомств 57 стран-членов ОБСЕ.

Примечательно, что Форум прошел в необычном формате - стратегической игры, включавшей в себя мозговые штурмы, дискуссии, консультации и дебаты с участием опытных экспертов в различных областях – представителей госструктур, известных ученых и политических деятелей.

Оживленный обмен идеями и компетенциями позволил молодым участникам Форума проанализировать существующие тенденции на пространстве Большой Евразии, определить наиболее уязвимые точки международной политики и экономики, а также предложить собственные решения в виде предельно конкретизированных проектов, которые бы позволили не только преодолеть проблемы, но и в перспективе в корне изменить устоявшийся порядок на евразийском пространстве, выработать новые модели взаимодействия.

Помимо командной исследовательской работы и прогнозирования в рамках Форума было проведено множество индивидуальных стресс-тестов, интеллектуальных и творческих конкурсов, результатом которых стала выработка «Обращения к молодому поколению – 2040». Закладка участниками Форума капсулы времени стало своего рода кульминацией всего мероприятия. Эта капсула, содержащая Обращение, будет открыта в 2040 г.

Высокой чести выступить на специальной сессии ИИАСА в рамках 24-го заседания Совета министров ОБСЕ, в результате победы в многоступенчатом конкурсе претендентов на выступление в ОБСЕ, удостоилась активнейший участник мероприятия, капитан одной из команд Марина Штайнингер (Германия).

Участие всех молодых участников и экспертов в сессии ИИАСА «Связь, торговля и экономическое сотрудничество в рамках расширенного европейского и евразийского пространства», прошедшей 8 декабря в рамках 24-го заседания Совета министров ОБСЕ стало, действительно, красивым финалом Форума.

На сессии выступили д-р Павел Кабат, профессор, генеральный директор и главный исполнительный директор ИИАСА; Посол Флориан Рауниг, руководитель Целевой группы по вопросам председательства Австрии в ОБСЕ в 2017 г.; Татьяна Валовая, член правления Евразийской экономической комиссии по вопросам развития интеграции и макроэкономики; Игнасио Гарсиа Берсеро, директор европейской комиссии по торговле; Кайрат Абдрахманов, министр иностранных дел Республики Казахстан; д-р Фелипе Джарамильо, старший директор по макроэкономике, торговле и инвестициям группы Всемирного банка; д-р Эрик Регтер, член правления компании Rail Cargo Austria AG.

Активное участие в сессии приняли Юрий Кофнер, Мин Коэл Ким , Наргиза Касымова, задавший высоким экспертам острые вопросы, поставившие перед ними проблемы, остро волнующие молодежь равно как в ЕС, так и в СНГ и Юго-Восточной Азии.

Таким образом, различия между нациями, государствами и культуры, убеждениями, установками и устремлениями молодежи из Германии, Италии, Кыргызстана, России, Южной Кореи и Сингапура на поверку гораздо меньшие и незначительные, чем думается. Вероятно, это и есть гарант того, что проект Большой Евразии все-таки состоится.

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Комментарии

Широко смотритят участники. Но как говаривал товарищ Ленин, не последний, ксчтати,  политик который давало человечаство - прежде чем объединяться, всем надо хорошенечно размежеваться... так вот, мир размежевывется и не собирается пока что объединятся в такие мега-структуры (((( 

Ой не скажитте... Все может сто раз певераернуться и оказаться в той позиции, о которой тут говорится...))))

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